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Weekly outlook of financial market events

The beginning of the new week, which is marked in the 2024 calendar as the tenth in a row on the foreign exchange market, unfolded in the business trend of the current slight weakening of the exchange value of the American dollar (USD) against other major world currencies. Currently, during the European Monday morning on 4/3/2024, at approximately 9:09 CET, the mutual exchange rate of the global currency pair of the single European currency, the euro (EUR) and the US dollar (USD), was moving in the amount of 1.086 USD per EUR with the previous daily strengthening EUR by + 0.17% exchange rate against the USD. However, according to analysts, the USD is expected to strengthen again.

Financial strategists note that the mutual exchange rate may still be highly volatile with regard to Thursday’s meeting on 7/3/2024 of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB), which this time is a political currency and can thus decide on interest rates in the eurozone. Central bankers from the ECB can thus, by their decision, influence the future exchange rate of the EUR against the USD through interest rates as part of their monetary policy.

Investors, traders and other financial market participants expect the following events in this 10th week of 2024:

Non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in the EU and USA – monthly

The Services PMI reflects activity in the services sector in the reporting month. The indicator is based on a survey of representatives of more than 600 companies for the EU and more than 300 companies for the USA. Values above 50 can have a positive effect on EUR and USD quotes. The data for this index will be published: for the EU on Tuesday 03/05/2024 at 10:00 CET. According to analysts, the value is expected to remain at 50 points. For the USA on Tuesday 03/05/2024 at 16:00 CET. According to analysts, the value is expected to drop from 53.4 to 52.9 points.

ECB Governing Council meeting and subsequent press conference

The press conference is about an hour long and has 2 parts – first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to press questions. Questions often lead to unscripted answers that create strong market volatility. It is the primary method the ECB (European Central Bank) uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that influenced the latest interest rate and other policy decisions, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides guidance on future monetary policy; The press conference will take place on Thursday 03/07/2024 at 14:30 CET after the meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB with a monetary policy program.

US Non-Farm Employment Change – Monthly

Nonfarm Employment Change shows the monthly change in 19 manufacturing sectors in the United States. The indicator does not take agriculture into account. The indicator characterizes activity on the labor market and in the industrial sector. Employment growth can have a positive effect on USD quotes. The data of this index will be published on Friday 08/03/2024 at 14:30 CET and it is expected to increase by 206 thousand compared to last month.

Average salary in the USA – monthly

The wage indicator represents the number of new jobs created in a given month in all US non-farm sectors. Even the growth of this indicator can have a positive effect on dollar quotations. The data of this index will be published on Friday 08/03/2024 at 14:30 CET. An increase of 0.3% compared to last month is expected.

US unemployment – monthly

The unemployment rate shows the number of unemployed people as a percentage of the working-age population. The calculation is done monthly. The unemployed are defined as persons between the ages of 15 and 74 who are not currently employed, although they are available for work and actively looking for it. The growth of the indicator may have a negative effect on quotes in dollars. The data of this index will be published on Friday 08/03/2024 at 14:30 CET and no change is expected compared to the previous results (3.4%).


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