Weekly outlook of financial market events


Trading with the US dollar (USD) in the forex operations of the foreign exchange market is still highly attractive even at the beginning of a new trading week, which is marked in the calendar of this year 2023 as the 38th in a row. Investors, traders and other financial market participants are waiting for the announcement of the FOMC FED regarding interest rates on Wednesday, September 20, 2023. The exchange value of the USD still shows a very strong position and according to the DXY dollar index (US Dollar Currency Index), the value of the USD has already surpassed the point level above 105 USD points according to this index, which compares the USD with the other six major world currencies.

Currently, during the European Monday morning on September 18, 2023, at approximately 7:11 CET, the USD exchange value according to the DXY index was at USD 105.22 points, with a daily decrease of -0.09% of the point value so far. According to analysts of brokerage companies and financial strategists of the foreign exchange market, this momentary drop in the USD is just a standard manifestation of profit-taking by investors. In this situation, the global currency pair of the single European currency euro (EUR) and the US dollar (USD) was traded on the indicated day and time at a mutual exchange rate of 1.067 USD per EUR with the daily strengthening of the EUR by + 0.12% so far exchange rate against the USD. However, analysts say that the current exchange rate of this EUR/USD currency pair has been influenced by the ECB’s decision to further increase interest rates in the Eurozone, where this move has supported the European currency Euro for the time being, but if the FOMC FED raises interest rates in the US on Wednesday 9/20/2023 thus, at the beginning of October this year, 2023, another drop in the exchange value of the EUR against the USD can be expected, when the estimates of economic reporters even talk about a possible scenario of a mutual exchange rate in the range of 1.04-1.05 USD per EUR. Investors expect the following events in this 38th week of 2023:

CPI Consumer Price Index in Canada – Monthly

The monthly Consumer Price Index reflects changes in the prices of consumer goods and services in a given month compared to the previous one. The index shows price changes from the consumer’s perspective. The consumer price index characterizes inflationary dynamics. Its growth may have a positive effect on the quotations in the Canadian dollar. The index value will be published on Tuesday 19/09/2023 at 14:30 CET and is expected to increase by 0.1% compared to last month.

FED (Federal Reserve System) interest rate change decision

The FED decides on interest rates on a predetermined date during a vote among members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding the Federal Reserve’s short-term interest rates to be charged on loans and commercial bank loans. A rising rate can have a positive effect on the USD, while a falling rate can have a negative effect on it. If the rate remains unchanged, analysts will evaluate the number of votes “for” and “against” and discuss the statements of voters after the minutes of the meeting are published to predict the results of the next meeting. The FED members will meet at a traditional two-day meeting on 19-20 September 2023, and on Wednesday 20 September 2023, at approximately 20:00 CET, head Jerome Powell will announce the final decisions of the FOMC FED at a press conference. According to analysts, the interest rate is rather expected to remain at 5.5% per year, however, some analysts do not rule out a possible milder increase of 25 basis points.

CCI Index of consumer confidence in the EU – monthly

The consumer confidence index shows the level of consumer confidence in the stability of the country’s economy. It is intended to evaluate the relative financial status, purchasing power and confidence of the average consumer. The growth of the indicator assumes an increase in consumer spending. The data for this index will be published on Thursday 09/21/2023 at 16:00 CET. According to analysts, a value of -17 is expected.

Purchasing Managers’ Manufacturing Index (PMI) in the EU and the US – monthly

The Manufacturing PMI reflects the activity of business managers in given areas in a given month. The index is used in evaluating the development of the industrial sector. Values above 50 can have a positive effect on EUR and USD quotes. The data for this index will be published: for the EU on Friday 09/22/2023 at 10:00 CET. According to analysts, an increase from 43.5 to 44 points is expected. For the USA on Friday 09/22/2023 at 15:45 CET. According to analysts, it is expected to remain at the value of 47.9 points.

Non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in the EU and USA – monthly

The Services PMI reflects activity in the services sector in the reporting month. The indicator is based on a survey of representatives of more than 600 companies for the EU and more than 300 companies for the USA. Values above 50 can have a positive effect on EUR and USD quotes. The data for this index will be published: for the EU on Friday 09/22/2023 at 10:00 CET. According to analysts, a slight decrease from 47.9 points to 47.7 points is expected. For the USA on Friday 09/22/2023 at 15:45 CET. According to analysts, an increase from 50.5 points to 50.8 points is expected.