In the upcoming trading week, which will be the fifteenth week in 2019, investors and traders expect data from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March and the transcripts from the Federal Reserve system (FED) meeting to be announced, along with a host of other things. Otherwise, so far the new week has brought a slight weakening of the American dollar (USD) from the previous high at the end of last week.
On April 8, 2019, at 7:46 CET, the USD according to the US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), was at 97.27 points with a current daily decline of – 0.13% of the point value. At the same time, the single European currency (EUR) recorded an increase against the USD but still at a lower exchange rate compared to the previous year’s exchange rate. The EUR/USD pair traded at a rate of 1.1225 USD per EUR and it showed an increase in the EUR exchange rate by + 0.10%.
Traders, investors, and their analysts, along with investment strategists, expect the following events, among other things, to affect trading trends in the global financial market:
US CPI Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is released every month with March’s report expected on Wednesday, April 10, 2019. This key index assesses the changes in cost of living compared to income (wages) and expenses in eight categories of goods and services. At the same time, the so-called “core CPI” which excludes goods with high price volatility, such as food and energy, is announced. In particular, the CPI is used to adjust revenue estimates for inflation calculation as a basis for the FED in determining interest rates. CPI slowed in recent months and it is expected to have risen by 0.3% last month. The core CPI is forecasted to grow 2.1% year on year, with a monthly rate of 0.1%.
The United Kingdom will release its GDP growth data for February on 10 April 2019. Despite Brexit, the UK economy grew at a monthly rate of 0.5% in January. A modest increase of 0.2% is expected in February.
The European Central Bank (ECB) will publish its decision on interest rates on Wednesday, April 10, 2019. In March, the bank indicated that it would take a lighter stance and announced a new bank lending program. This time the bank may not expect any change in forecasts or policies but at a press conference President Mario Draghi might indicate how he believes the European economy will continue to develop.
EU Brexit Summit
Politicians from all EU countries, including British Prime Minister Theresa May, will meet at a special Brexit summit on Wednesday, April 10, 2019, just two days before Britain’s official departure from the European Union. The UK’s Parliament has not approved the agreement and failed to agree on alternatives, therefore May is going to ask Brussels for a further extension of the departure deadline until 30 June. The EU is requiring Britain to leave before the European Parliament elections, which will be held at the end of May. It will strive for a quick departure or a long delay. One option is to extend the deadline until May 2020.
Minutes of FOMC meeting
On Wednesday, April 10, 2019, the Federal Reserve will publish a record of the March meeting of the Federal Trade Commission. The record will shed more light on the reasons behind the FED’s March decision, when it decided to postpone further interest rate increase and end balance sheet runoff.