In the upcoming trading week investors are waiting for a further development in the US trade war, not only with China, but also with Mexico. There is also a possible dispute between the US and the EU on cards. On June 3, 2019, during the European morning at 8:15 CET, the US dollar slightly weakened and the EUR/USD currency pair traded at US$1.1173 per EUR, with the daily USD decline of – 0.05% against EUR.
This week, which is the 23rd one in 2019, investors expect the following major events that could affect the trend of global markets:
United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reflects current and future business conditions in the US manufacturing sector in a given month. Values over 50 may have a positive effect on US dollar quotations. The data for this index is expected to increase from 52.8 to 54.1 points.
FED Chief’s Speech
On Tuesday 4 June, 2019 at 14:55 CET, the head of the US central bank, Mr. Jerome Powell, will make a statement. It is expected to give a closer indication of the US central bank’s monetary policy in view of the subsequent developments in US interest rates. According to economic advisors, it can be assumed that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will keep interest rates unchanged.
Monthly EU Retail Sales
Retail sales reflect the change in retail wages in the euro zone in the current month compared to the previous month. The calculation is inflation adjusted. The index is often called the consumer spending indicator and it allows for the inflation to be assessed in the euro area. Indicator growth may have a positive effect on quotations in euros. The information will be released on Wednesday, 5 June, 2019 and a slight decrease from 0.0% to -0.3% is expected.
Bank of England Governor’s Speech
On Thursday, June 6, 2019 at 10:00 CET, the Bank of England (BoE) chief will give his speech, outlining the future direction of the UK monetary policy in view of the subsequent developments in interest rates, which will affect the British pound (GBP).
EU Employment – Quarterly Review
The quarterly change in employment shows the difference in the number of people employed in the euro zone in the current quarter compared to the previous one. The calculation includes both full-time and part-time employment, as well as hired and self-employed workers. The increase in the index allows forecasting consumer spending growth. Therefore, the growth of indicator value can have a positive effect on quotations in euros. The information will be released on Thursday, June 6, 2019 at 10:00 CET and no change is expected.
ADP National Employment – Monthly Report
The wage indicator represents the number of new jobs created in a given month in the US nonfarm private sector. The growth of this indicator may have a positive effect on dollar quotations and stock market price increase. The information will be published on Wednesday, June 5, 2019 at 13:15 CET and it is expected to decrease from the current total of 275,000 to 190,000 jobs. According to some estimates, it could even drop to 170,000 jobs. The employment indicator expresses the labour market development and the activity of the industrial sector (excluding agriculture).