So far the new business week has seen an increased interest from commodity market investors in the crude oil. The price of oil has risen after relations between Iran and the US have deteriorated. During the European trading morning on May 20, 2019, at 10:44 CET, WTI crude oil traded at US$63.17 per barrel with + 0.65% daily growth at NYMEX. North Sea Brent crude also posted a + 0.57% increase to US$72.62 per barrel.
This week, which is the 21st one in 2019, investors expect the following major events that could affect the trend of global financial markets:
FED Chief’s Speech
On Tuesday, May 21, 2019, the Federal Reserve System (FED) Chief, Mr. Jerome Powell, will make a statement. It is expected to give a closer indication of the direction of the US central bank’s monetary policy in view of the subsequent developments in US interest rates. According to economic advisors, it can be assumed that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will keep interest rates unchanged.
Consumer Price Index – CPI in the UK
This index is one of the key inflation indicators in the United Kingdom and its data will be published on Wednesday, 22 May 2019. The growth of this index may have a positive effect on the exchange rate of the British pound against other world currencies, and especially against the USD and EUR. According to analytic estimates, a moderate decline is expected from 1.9% to 1.8% year-on-year, but in April 2019 an increase is expected from 0.2% to 0.3%.
European Parliament elections
Elections to the European Parliament (EP) will take place between Wednesday, May 23, 2019 and Sunday, May 26, 2019. Each EU member country specified the electoral days in their own country within this timeframe. For example, in Czech Republic, EP elections will take place on Friday and Saturday, 24-25 May, 2019. Analysts do not expect a significant diversion of existing EU policy after the EP elections, but a stronger representation of civilian alternatives more than traditional political parties in the EP is expected.
US Durable Goods orders
On Friday, May 24, 2019, a report on the value of durable goods orders will be published. The life span of durable goods is expected to be more than 3 years and they often require large investments. A large proportion of these goods is produced in the US, therefore this figure provides an excellent estimate of the American production. Consumer goods are usually sensitive to economic changes. When consumers are skeptical about economic conditions, the sale of durable goods is one of the first ones to decrease because consumers can delay buying long-lasting goods. Conversely, when consumer confidence is restored, it quickly reflects on durable goods orders. According to analysts, the currently estimated indicator data show a decline from 0.4% to 0.1% in a monthly comparison.
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