The new trading week, which is the 18th one in 2019, started on foreign exchange market – Forex with the US dollar (USD) weakening. According to the US Dollar Currency Index (DXY) during the European trading morning on April 29, 2019, at 8:42 CET, the daily USD point value dropped by – 0.04% points to US$97.96 points.
This week investors expect the following major events that could affect the trend of global financial markets:
CPI Index in Germany
It assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in prices of consumer goods. CPI is headline inflation that shows the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Simply put, inflation reflects the decline in the euro’s purchasing power in Germany, where one buys less goods or services with the euro. CPI is the most popular way to measure changes in purchasing power. German CPI is significant as one of the main indicators of measuring inflation. High or rising inflation acts as a signal to the ECB to raise interest rates. The data of this CPI index in Germany will be reported on Tuesday, April 30, 2019 and analysts expect the index value to be higher than in March by + 0.4% p.a.
Consumer confidence in the US
On Tuesday, April 30, 2018, consumer confidence data will be released in the US by the Conference Board (CB). This survey expresses an assessment of consumer costs for business, employment and personal income in the US. March values are already high at 124.1 and analysts expect a further increase with an estimated range of 125.3 to 126.6.
On Wednesday, 1 May 2019, Labor Day celebrations will be held in most countries of the world as a public holiday, with banks and stock exchanges, especially in European and Asian countries, closing on the day. However, for example, in Japan, and in the US, trading will not be interrupted, as in Japan a holiday was held on Monday, April 29, 2019, and in the US Labor Day is celebrated on September 2nd. Investors in European and Asian countries, including China, who will have a business holiday will focus on the US markets.
US unemployment rate
Like every first Friday of the month, this Friday, May 3, 2019, US labor non-agricultural market data will be reported as a percentage of unemployment in the US and also the number of newly created jobs for April. According to analysts, the same level of unemployment rate as the previous month’s is expected, which is at 3.8 percent considered a moderate unemployment rate. This indicator and data reporting has a particularly strong impact on the US stock market and the US dollar on the global forex market.