The new trading week, which is the twenty-seventh one in 2019, shows optimistic investor sentiment thanks to US diplomacy making a considerable progress during the weekend to improve relations with China and also with North Korea. During the G20 summit, on 29 July, 2019 the US and China presidents met and agreed to halt the increase in customs tariffs and charges for the import of goods, and, most of all, the US lifted sanctions against Chinese company Huawei.
On the morning of 30 June, 2019 President Donald Trump briefly met North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on the South and North Korea border and became the first US president ever to step foot on North Korea soil. The US dollar (USD) has strengthened and during Monday’s trading morning on 7 July, 2019, at 6:42 CET, the USD value measured by the DXY dollar index was US$96.36 points with the current daily boost + 0.24% point value. Thus, the EUR/USD global currency pair traded with the exchange rate of US$1.135 per EUR with a EUR decrease of -0.16%.
Investors expect the following major events that could affect the trend of global markets:
Monthly EU and US Purchasing Managers Production Index
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Production Index (PMI) reflects the activity of sales managers in the area in a given month. The index is used to assess the development of the industrial sector. Values over 50 can have a positive effect on EUR and USD. The data will be published on Monday, 1 July, 2019 at approximately 9:00 CET (EU) and 15:00 CET (US).
Monthly EU unemployment rate
The unemployment rate shows the number of unemployed people of the working-age population in percentage. The calculation is made monthly. The unemployed are defined as people aged between 15 and 74 who are currently not employed, but available for work and are actively seeking work. Indicator growth may have a negative impact on euro quotations. The value of the index will be published on Monday, 1 July, 2019 at 10:00 CET and it is expected to decline slightly from the current 7.6% to 7.5%.
The meeting will take place on Monday and Tuesday, 1 – 2 July, 2019. OPEC today includes Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. Representatives of other oil-rich countries (such as Russia, Norway, Canada, etc.) are invited to participate on Tuesday, July 2, 2019 as non-OPEC participants at this meeting that will take place in Vienna, Austria. This major event can affect the world oil market because it determines how much oil should be produced. If crude oil production is further reduced, oil prices are expected to increase. If the volume increases or remains unchanged, world market prices usually fall.
Monthly EUR Retail Sales
Retail sales reflect the change in Eurozone retail wages in the reference month compared to the previous month. The calculation is adjusted for inflation. The index is often called the consumer spending indicator and allows inflation in Eurozone to be assessed. Indicator growth may have a positive effect on euro quotations. The information will be released on Thursday 4 July, 2019 at 10:00 CET and is expected to grow from -0.4% to 0.2%.
Monthly Foreign Exchange Reserves in China
Foreign exchange reserves reflect the total amount of foreign currency held by Bank of China. They include foreign banknotes, bank deposits, bonds, treasury bills and other government securities, as well as special rights issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and a reserve position in the IMF. The amount of reserves can have a positive effect on yuan quotations. The information will be published on Sunday 7 July, 2019 at 7:00 CET.