September 17 that the U.S. stock market would turn lower and attempt a 5~8% downside move on or after September 21, headed into the U.S. mid-term elections. Our analysis of the potential downside move was related to our price modeling systems expectations that a common predicted downside target existed between -5% and -8%. Our researchers did not believe the markets would fall much below -10% before hammering out a price bottom and finding support.
Today, we are just 7~10 days away from the U.S. mid-term elections and if our predictions hold true, we will be establishing a price bottom in the U.S. stock markets over the next 5+ trading days and begin a new upside price rally fairly quickly after the election results are known. We could interpret this as “a period of uncertainty that is mixed with economic and news data,” which results in investors pulling out of the markets ahead of these types of global events. In all reality, the U.S. elections are really a global event for many investors. Policies, regulations, taxes, objectives and execution become a very big question for many as these elections take place. Hundreds of billions of dollars are exposed to risk in the weeks headed into the elections and thus, global investors and traders are always cautious headed into a major U.S. election.