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HomeETF NewsTurning Points For The Week Of November 26-30

Turning Points For The Week Of November 26-30


  • The credit markets are showing modest signs of stress.
  • The yield curve continues to narrow.
  • The second GDP report had a strong headline number, but several key one-off events were responsible for the strong report.

The purpose of the Turning Points Newsletter is to look at the long-leading, leading, and coincidental indicators to determine if the economic trajectory has changed from expansion to contraction – to see if the economy has reached a “turning point.”

As regular readers know, I upped my recession probabilities to about 30% over the last few months, based on declining building permits, heightened corporate paper spreads, a tightening Fed, a flattening yield curve, and a declining equity market.

While the Fed is probably a bit more dovish now, deteriorating conditions in several credit market sectors keep my recession percentage at 30%

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