The exchange value of the US dollar (USD) against the single European currency, the euro (EUR), has so far hovered above a three-month low during today’s trading day, Thursday, September 14, 2023. This situation, according to economic correspondents in connection with the analysts of brokerage companies, was caused by the attention and increased interest in the euro (EUR) in connection with the meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) taking place today, September 14, 2023, which is discussing its next course of action within its monetary policies and in particular decides on interest rates in the eurozone. Along with this European view, the current state of the exchange value of the US dollar also has yesterday’s publication of the amount of inflation in the US as part of the monthly reporting of the Consumer Price Index (CPI – Consumer Price Index) in the United States of America. Unfortunately, this index showed higher inflation in the US than expected and now investors are anxiously awaiting the decision of the central bankers of the US as part of the FOMC FED meeting, which will traditionally take place as a two-day event on 19-20 September 2023.
Currently, during the beginning of the European Thursday afternoon on September 14, 2023, at approximately 13:02 CET, the exchange value of the single European currency, the euro (EUR) against the US dollar (USD) within forex operations of the foreign exchange market was moving at a mutual exchange rate at a value of 1.074 USD per EUR with the daily strengthening of the EUR by + 0.07% against the USD. On the indicated day and approximately at the indicated time, the value of the USD according to the dollar index DXY (US Dollar Currency Index) reached a point level of 104.72 USD points with a daily decrease of -0.05% of the point value according to this index, which compares value of the USD with another six major world currencies. On the other hand, the US Dollar (USD) strengthened against the British Pound (GBP) as it traded at a mutual exchange rate of 1.247 USD/GBP with the USD gaining +0.136% against the GBP on the day to date. However, within the Asian continent, the US dollar (USD) also weakened as in Europe and, for example, the closely watched currency pair of the US dollar (USD) and the Japanese yen (JPY) was traded at the rate of 147.32 JPY per USD on the day and time mentioned, with the previous daily by a -0.088% drop in the USD against the JPY.
Traders, investors and other financial market participants remain almost certain that even after its final decision on September 20, 2023, the US Fed will keep interest rates at a stable level again, according to money market prices. However, the chance of a quarter-point increase or 25 basis points (0.25% p.a.) by the end of this year is currently around 40 percent. Meanwhile, bets on a Eurozone interest rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) later today on Thursday 9/14/2023 are currently two in three. This assumption, according to economic correspondents, is partially supported by a Reuters report that the European Central Bank expects inflation in its updated forecasts to remain above 3% next year, thus well above the 2 percent target. The FED’s November FOMC meeting will be a “key event” with a rise in oil prices raising the risk of further hikes and potentially strengthening the USD, said James Kniveton, senior corporate FX dealer at Convera in Melbourne. “It is too early to say that the USD bears have taken control,” this expert said. At the same time, an ECB hike “could potentially catalyze a momentum shift and relegate the dollar to a secondary position as the euro gains strength,” Mr Kniveton added.
