In the last two days, the oil commodity market has experienced two significant changes in the trading trend of oil commodities, both in light American WTI oil (West Texas Intermediate and Brent North Sea oil). On Thursday, October 12, 2023, after the CPI consumer price index was published, which showed that inflation in the US has increased year-on-year again and investors are predicting further interest rate increases and the strengthening of the exchange value of the US dollar (USD) caused a drop in oil prices on the commodity market.However, during the European night from Thursday to Friday 13/10/2023 oil prices on the commodity market have increased.
The reason for the re-growth of oil prices on the global commodity market after Thursday’s decline was the tightening of sanctions on Russian oil supplies by the administration of the United States of America. It was these concerns about the supply of oil on the global commodity market with regard to its growing demand that raised the concerns of investors, traders and other participants in the commodity market, which manifested itself in even higher demand, which then quite naturally, within the framework of the rule of excess demand over supply, manifested itself in higher oil prices on the commodity market., are reported by economic reporters in connection with analysts and financial strategists of investment companies and banks. According to the forecast of these experts, it can be assumed that already in the fourth quarter of this year, 2023, a decrease in the supply of oil to global markets will be reflected in the global market. Along with this, this forecast also predicts a decrease in global oil reserves, which pushes current oil prices even higher.
Currently, during the European Friday morning on October 13, 2023, at approximately 9:33 CET, on the NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) commodity market, the American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil was moving at a value of 84.43 USD per barrel with a daily growth of +1.83% of its price so far. This current price of WTI oil, according to technical analysis data, thus represents an annual growth of +9.62% of its price in the last 52 weeks, from which since the beginning of 2023 the price of WTI oil has increased by +8.59% of its price compared to the price at the end of last year 2022. The European counterpart of WTI oil, namely Brent North Sea oil, on the indicated day and time, traded on the ICE (Intercontinental Exchange Europe) commodity market at a value of USD 87.49 per barrel with a daily gain of +1.73% so far prices. According to technical analysis data, this Brent oil price thus expresses its yearly increase of +9.28% of the price in the last 52 weeks, from which since the beginning of 2023 the price of Brent oil has increased by +7.07%.
However, on Thursday 12/10/2023, the United States of America (US) effectively imposed the first sanctions on tanker owners carrying Russian oil at a price above the G7 price ceiling of 60 US dollars (USD) per barrel to close the so-called loopholes in a mechanism designed to punish the Russian Federation for its invasion of Ukraine. Russia is the world’s second-largest oil producer and a major exporter, so stricter US controls by the US administration on the world’s oil supply could limit oil supplies to global markets, analysts and commodity market strategists said. Also yesterday, Thursday 12/10/2023, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) kept its forecast for global oil demand growth, citing signs of a resilient global economy in 2023, and expected a further increase in demand from China, the world’s largest oil importer . In this context, economic correspondents state that both OPEC and OPEC+ have not mentioned their previously announced cuts in oil production, and therefore it can be assumed that in this last quarter of this year, 2023, there will be approximately 3 million barrels per day less. This fact is already reflected in the prices of oil on the commodity market, and analysts in connection with financial strategists predict the development of the price of oil until close to the price limit of around USD 100 per barrel.