Predictions of the price of oil on the world commodity market, according to analysts and financial strategists of the World Bank, indicate a possible scenario for the development of the price of oil up to around the USD 150 per barrel mark. This price estimate is based on the assumption that, in the short term, there will be no easing of tensions in the Middle East region, where there is currently an open war between the Palestinian movement Hamas and the State of Israel. If the war does not stop and, on the contrary, if this conflict were to expand to other states from the region, which analysts evaluate as highly probable, then the price of oil will skyrocket.
Currently, during the European Wednesday morning on November 8, 2023, at approximately 7:44 CET, the US light oil WTI (West Texas Intermediate) traded on the commodity market NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) at a value of USD 77.34 per barrel with a daily decrease of -0.04% of its previous price so far. In an annual comparison, this price already represents a price drop of -1.75% over the last 52 weeks. The European counterpart of WTI oil, namely Brent North Sea oil, traded on the ICE (Intercontinental Exchange Europe) commodity market at USD 81.75 per barrel on the indicated day and time, with a +0.17% increase in its price so far. The current price of Brent oil, according to technical analysis data, represents a total annual loss of -4.67% of its price over the last 52 weeks.
This current oil price was reached in a situation where the exchange value of the US dollar according to its index DXY (US Dollar Currency Index) indicated the current business trend of strengthening the exchange value of the USD against other world currencies. On the indicated day and time, the value of this DXY index was 105.66 USD points, with a daily growth of +0.11% of its point value, according to this index, which compares the value of the US dollar (USD) with another six major world currencies, namely including the single European currency, the euro (EUR). This so-called global currency pair EUR / USD traded on the foreign exchange market on Wednesday 8/11/2023, at approximately 7:54 CET, at a mutual exchange rate of 1.068 USD per EUR, with a daily weakening of the EUR by -0.168% against the USD.
According to World Bank analysts in connection with other oil trade experts, it is quite realistic that if the conflict in the Gaza Strip were to spread to other territories in the Middle East, the so-called “Arab Spring” would most likely occur, which would primarily result in Arab an oil embargo as last experienced by the economic world in 1973. At that time, the price of Brent oil rose to a value of 157 United States dollars (USD) per barrel. This price in recent history was the price of oil at the beginning of the global economic crisis in 2008, when the commodity market traded a barrel of oil at a price of USD 147.50. This oil price prediction as a projection of possible developments is one of the World Bank’s three risk scenarios that estimate different degrees of oil supply disruption based on past historical episodes involving regional conflicts. However, most of the analysts of brokerage companies and financial strategists of the commodity market focused on the oil trade think that the price of oil will certainly see its price increase, but they estimate the price to be in the range of 90-100 USD per barrel at the end of this year 2023.