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The Bad News About Record-Low Unemployment

Unemployment is the lowest it’s been in 50 years.

That means most people who want to work can find a job. It also means people are making more money and buying more stuff.

All good. More people working is always positive. But a low unemployment rate is a double-edged sword.

See, the unemployment rate is cyclical. It’s always moving up or down. And at this point—3.6%—there’s almost no room for it to drop more.

That’s where the trouble starts: When the unemployment rate bottoms out, like it’s doing now, it means the economy has peaked. And a recession is probably coming…

We’ve Been Here Before
Notice that every time the unemployment rate hits a low, a recession (highlighted in gray) soon follows:


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