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Technically Speaking For September


Crude oil is picking up some steam.

Although there is talk about treasury yields moving higher, the 5 and 10-year breakeven inflation rate says that’s not going to happen.

This was a very political day in the market.

Oil is again rearing its head. Here’s what’s happening. When the U.S. left the Iran deal, they also reimposed sanctions on the regime and any business that did business with Iran. That means that no one can buy Iranian oil as of early November. Sales are already dropping off. Decreasing supply = higher prices. Compounding the problem is that OPEC — which has diminished market power but still sits in Dad’s chair at the end of the table — isn’t increasing production. And with the world economy still expanding, demand is rising. So, let’s use basic microeconomic concepts, shall we? Decreasing supply plus increasing demand equals higher prices. And that’s what we’re seeing:

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