- The IMF is still forecasting solid growth, but downside risks have increased.
- Chinese-US relations have soured of late; China is pumping money into its economy.
- The markets are trying to bottom around the 200-day EMAs.
The International Monetary Fund released their latest global economic forecastsyesterday. Although the tone was generally positive, it observed that two risks had developed. The first one is an increased difficulty for emerging markets that were exposed to the rising dollar. The report specifically noted that Turkey, Argentina, and South Africa had this problem. The IMF also noted that this event was so far contained to the relevant countries. The second risk was (unsurprisingly) increased trade riffs caused by Trump’s implementation of tariffs on key U.S. trading partners. Sentiment reports have registered an uptick in concern on behalf of policymakers as a result of the rising wave of protectionism. This could lead to decreased or delayed spending plans on the part of businesses.