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SPY Trends And Influencers December 29, 2018

Last week’s review of the macro market indicators noted that heading into the Christmas shortened week, equities looked the worst they had in at least 2 years. Elsewhere looked for gold to continue in its uptrend while crude oil continued the path lower. The U.S. dollar index continued to mark time moving sideways, while U.S. Treasuries were biased higher short term. The Shanghai Composite and Emerging Markets had resumed their downtrends.

Volatility (NYSE:VXX) looked to remain elevated and creeping higher keeping the bias lower for the equity index ETF’s SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY), iShares Russell 2000(NYSE:IWM) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ). Their charts were in solid downtrends on both the daily and weekly view, with the IWM and QQQ in unofficial bear markets, off more than 20%, with the SPY close behind.

The week played out with gold continuing higher, while crude oil dropped early but recovered late in the week. The U.S. dollar remained in a tight range consolidating, while Treasuries bounced up and down like ping pong balls. The Shanghai Composite continued its move lower, but Emerging Markets found support and bounced.

Volatility shot up Monday in the short session but reversed it all Wednesday and held firm the rest of the week. The Equity Index ETF’s reacted with a violent move lower Christmas Eve, but even bigger reversal Wednesday with follow on Thursday after a deep intraday drop and reversal. They ended the week gapping up and then filling. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily

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