In early commodity market trading on Wednesday, September 20, 2023, oil prices were still hovering near the 10-month highs reached the previous day, during Tuesday, September 19, 2023, as larger-than-expected U.S. crude inventory draws and weak U.S. shale production has fueled fears of tight oil supplies through the rest of 2023. Overall global oil demand continues to see potential growth and is already overtaking China as the world’s traditional largest importer in terms of demand, now India, which analysts say will by the end of the decade will become the largest importer of oil in the world.
Based on these facts, which are already increasing the demand for oil, with regard to the economic development of not only China and India, but practically the whole of South-East Asia, there has recently been an increase in oil prices, which maintain their value above the price limit of USD 90 per barrel . Currently, during the European Wednesday morning on September 20, 2023, at approximately 7:16 CET, the light American oil WTI (West Texas Intermediate) was traded on the commodity market NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) at a value of USD 90.38 per barrel with a daily drop of -0.90% in price so far, according to analysts, due to the standard profit-taking achieved by investors in the previous period. This current price of WTI crude oil, according to technical analysis data, then represents a year-on-year increase of +18.76% of its price over the last 52 weeks. Since the beginning of this year, 2023, the price of WTI oil has shown an increase of +15.13% in its price compared to the price at the end of last year 2022. The European counterpart of WTI oil, namely North Sea Brent oil, was traded on the ICE commodity market (Intercontinental Exchange Europe) at a value of USD 93.47 per barrel with a -0.92% drop in its price so far for the same reasons as the drop in the price of WTI oil as investors take their profits.
The current price of Brent North Sea oil according to analytical data resulting from technical analysis data represents an annual increase of + 15.21% of its price over the last 52 weeks, of which since the beginning of this year 2023 Brent oil has increased by + 13.84 % of the price compared to the price at the end of last year 2022. The current oil prices during the European morning of Wednesday 9/20/2023 were reached when the exchange value of the US dollar (USD) showed a slight decrease of its points value, but with a point value slightly exceeding the status above $105 points. On the indicated day and time, the value of the DXY index was at a point level of 105.15 USD points, with a daily decrease of -0.05% of the point value so far according to this index, which compares the exchange value of the US dollar (USD) with the other six major world currencies . During this Wednesday European morning on September 20, 2023, the so-called global currency pair of the single European currency euro (EUR) and the US dollar (USD), as the central currency of the commodity market, traded on the foreign exchange market as part of forex operations at a mutual exchange rate of in the amount of 1.068 USD per EUR with the daily strengthening of the EUR by + 0.03% against the USD so far.
Industrial data released on Tuesday, September 19, 2023 showed that US crude inventories fell by about 5.25 million barrels last week, according to market sources citing data from the American Petroleum Institute. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a drop of 2.2 million barrels. “A large decline in U.S. crude inventories and sluggish U.S. shale production have contributed to supply concerns stemming from extended output cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, a unit of Nissan Securities. “Due to the recent surge, there will be short-term adjustments to oil prices, but expectations to reach $100 per barrel for both Brent and WTI later this year remain unchanged,” added Mr. Hiroyuki Kikukawa. As part of a new potential crackdown on fuel supplies, the Russian government is considering imposing export tariffs on all petroleum products at a rate of $250 per tonne, much higher than current charges, as early as October 1, 2023, with the measure in place for now until June next year 2024 for the Russian Federation to deal with fuel shortages, sources told Reuters during Tuesday, 19/09/2023. All these facts, according to the analysts of brokerage companies in connection with investment strategists of the commodity market, lead to their belief that oil prices at the beginning of next year 2024 can really reach a price limit very close to USD 100 per barrel or even exceed this limit.