Global Stocks Rise to End Volatile Year; Oil Jumps: Markets Wrap

December 31, 2018

(Bloomberg) — Stocks around the world climbed at the end of a dismal year, with solid gains in U.S. equity futures after President Donald Trump reported “big progress” in trade talks with his Chinese counterpart. Treasuries were steady and oil rallied.

Miners and retailers led a second day of gains in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, which was still on course for a decline of about 13 percent this year — the biggest loss since 2008. Contracts on the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 all rallied and shares in China climbed as Trump said in a tweet that negotiations toward a comprehensive trade deal were “moving along very well.” The dollar edged lower and copper advanced. The euro held steady against the greenback after Italy’s populist government won final parliamentary approval for its 2019 budget.

Even if Monday’s gains hold, major indexes remain down for 2018. Global stocks are set for their worst year since the financial crisis while oil is mired in its steepest quarterly slump since 2014. Plenty of event risks loom in the next 12 months, from the U.K.’s exit from the European Union to U.S.-China trade talks and the continuing showdown between President Trump and Congress over the budget. The American political landscape is also unsettling investors following departures of senior officials and Trump’s repeated criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Elsewhere, emerging-market shares climbed and their currencies were steady even as factory data from China contracted.

Here are some events investors may focus on in coming days:

The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI is due Friday, Jan. 4.
Fed Chair Powell is interviewed with predecessors Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association Friday. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic joins a panel on long-run macroeconomic performance.

And these are the main moves in markets:

Stocks

Futures on the S&P 500 Index increased 0.8 percent as of 5:57 a.m. New York time, the highest in almost two weeks.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.4 percent to the highest in more than a week.
The MSCI All-Country World Index gained 0.2 percent to the highest in more than a week.
The MSCI Emerging Market Index climbed 0.5 percent to the highest in more than a week.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dipped 0.1 percent to the lowest in almost 10 weeks.
The euro gained less than 0.05 percent to $1.1448, the strongest in six weeks.
The Japanese yen increased 0.2 percent to 110.06 per dollar, the strongest in about six months.
The British pound jumped 0.3 percent to $1.2742, the strongest in more than three weeks.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index rose 0.1 percent to the highest in almost four weeks.

Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed one basis point to 2.73 percent.
Britain’s 10-year yield gained one basis point to 1.28 percent.

Commodities

The Bloomberg Commodity Index decreased 0.3 percent to the lowest in a week.
West Texas Intermediate crude increased 0.9 percent to $45.75 a barrel.
LME copper gained less than 0.05 percent to $5,998.50 per metric ton, the highest in more than a week.
Gold rose 0.2 percent to $1,282.66 an ounce, the highest in almost seven months.