Forex – Weekly Outlook: November 25 – 29

0 – Persistent uncertainty over the prospect of a U.S.-China trade deal looks likely to keep currency traders from taking on any large directional positions ahead of the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.

Despite the shorter week, the U.S. economic calendar indicates that both manufacturing and consumption will be in the spotlight. Investors will be monitoring regional manufacturing PMIs for any signs of a slowdown in the factory sector. Consumer confidence data on Tuesday will precede Black Friday, both of which will give insights into the strength of consumer spending. Durable goods orders and a second reading on third quarter GDP will also be closely watched and in the euro zone, Friday’s preliminary inflation data will top the much-watch list.

The U.S. dollar rose against a basket of currencies on Friday, after data showed U.S. factory and services activity accelerated in November, bolstering the outlook for the economy.

IHS Markit said its “flash” purchasing managers index for manufacturing rose to 52.2 in November from a final reading of 51.3 in October, while its preliminary services PMI increased to 51.6 this month from 50.6 last month.

The U.S. dollar index which compares the dollar against six major currencies, was up 0.28% at 98.17 in late trade.

The greenback received an additional boost from data showing that euro zone business growth almost stalled this month as activity in the bloc’s dominant services industry increased at a much weaker pace than expected and among manufacturers it contracted again.

The euro was down 0.3% against the greenback at 1.1021 late Friday.

“That combination is what is pulling the dollar a little higher,” said Vassili Serebriakov, an FX strategist at UBS in New York.

Despite Friday’s gains, the dollar has remained largely range-bound over the last few sessions. For the week, the dollar index was up 0.3%.

The dollar was little changed against the yen late Friday at 108.64.

“The dollar is relatively expensive but I think the market is really looking for signs of a stronger global growth rebound to revive interest in some of the currencies outside of the U.S. but the messages that we are getting are still a bit mixed, both in terms of the PMIs and the news on trade,” said Serebriakov.

The leaders of the U.S and China on Friday both underscored their desire to sign an initial trade deal and defuse a 16-month tariff war that has roiled financial markets and acted as a drag on global growth.

But trade talks could flounder if U.S. President Donald Trump signs into law a bill supporting Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protesters or if U.S. warships keep sailing near islands claimed by China in the South China Sea.

Elsewhere, the British pound weakened on Friday, recording its biggest daily loss in nearly three weeks after PMI data showing British business suffering their deepest downturn since mid-2016, with caution rising before a Dec. 12 general election.

Ahead of the coming week, has compiled a list of significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 25

Germany – Ifo business climate

Tuesday, November 26

New Zealand – Retail sales

U.S. – CB consumer confidencenew home salesRichmond manufacturing PMI; Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to speak

Wednesday, November 27

U.S. – Durable goods orderspreliminary GDPChicago PMIcore PCE price indexpersonal spendingpending home salesbeige book

Thursday, November 28

Germany – Preliminary CPI

U.S. – Markets closed for Thanksgiving holiday

Friday, November 29

Euro zone – CPI flash estimate

Canada – GDP; raw material price inflation

–Reuters contributed to this report

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