Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD May Climb After China Smashes Trade Surplus Record


Today’s economic docket is rather light, which will leave traders to digest the Chinese trade data from over the weekend. Investors may also be encouraged by the passage of a major infrastructure package in the United States. On Friday night, the House of Representatives passed a $1 trillion USD economic package that contains billions in new spending for roads, bridges, ports, electric vehicle stations and other construction projects.

Later this week, Chinese inflation and Australian employment data will cross the wires. The two events are potential high-impact risk drivers. Analysts expect China’s October CPI to drop at 1.4% y/y, while Australia’s employment change is forecasted for a +50k print, according to data from Bloomberg. China will also release new Yuan loans (Oct) later in the week.


AUD/USD is trading just under the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the September/October move as the APAC session kicks off. The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) provided support on last week’s drop. If bull’s can’t clear above the Fib level, a move back to the 50-day SMA may be on the cards. Prices would eye the 61.8% Fib (0.7315) below that.



The Australian Dollar may move higher to kick off the Asia-Pacific trading week after China posted a better-than-expected trade surplus over the weekend.
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